Performance
Break-even 2.91x store ROAS (34.3% margin, QuickBooks) · store numbers from ThoughtMetric ·What stands out
Opportunities, ranked
How these are ranked
Gain = estimated profit after ad spend over the next 3 months if the move works. Risk = the most it should lose if it fails and its stop rule fires. Odds start from the type of move (scaling a proven campaign 55%, trimming a loser 65%, relaunching last year's winner 40%, a new test 25-40%) and move with the evidence: steady over 90 days, 15+ orders, a proven upstream read, or the ad platform disagreeing. Best bet = odds x gain - (1 - odds) x risk. Moves the strategist deferred stay listed as "not now". Estimates from the last 30 days, not guarantees.
Trend
Campaigns by platform
| Campaign | Spend | Store sales | Store ROAS | Profit after ads | ROAS vs prior | ROAS vs last year |
|---|
Changes made in this period
| Date | Platform | Change | Result |
|---|
Result: store profit per day, 14 days after vs 14 before, season-adjusted. PROVEN = 95% sure; LIKELY = 80%. Batch = changes made within 3 days on one platform, read together. Traffic/cart results are shown when money can't be read yet.
Data sources and freshness
| Source | As of | Age | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| ThoughtMetric store orders, per campaign, daily (per ad account) | 2026-10-21 | 0d | from 2025-01-01 |
| ThoughtMetric whole store, daily | 2026-10-21 | 0d | |
| Google Ads via Windsor, daily | 2026-10-21 | 0d | platform claim |
| Microsoft Ads via Windsor, daily | 2026-10-21 | 0d | platform claim |
| QuickBooks P&L (margin, break-even) | 2026-10-19 | 2d | weekly, Sundays |
| Competitor ads (Meta Ad Library, Google Transparency) | 2026-10-19 | 2d | Mon/Thu |
| Strategist proposals | 2026-10-19 | 2d |
QuickBooks trailing 12 months 2025-10..2026-09: $2,724,161 income / $1,788,745 fully-loaded COGS => 34.3%. Fact table built 2026-10-21T09:26:06+00:00; today is a partial day and is left out.